FinIntel weekly report

Generated 2026-10-17 16:26 UTC · window 7d · 4082 new signals

_Claude narrative unavailable (BadRequestError: Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your credit balance is too low to access the Anthropic API. Please go to Plans & Billing to upgrade or purcha) — computed digest._

What changed this week

Convergent signals

Capital raises (ATM / converts) (4 new)

as ofentitysignal
2026-10-13CIFRCIFR convertible notes: $850M, 1.75% coupon (Technology, filed 2026-10-13) [research]
2026-10-15REALREAL convertible notes: $150M, 4.0% coupon (Consumer Cyclical, filed 2026-10-15) [research]
2026-10-15VRMVRM convertible notes: size n/a (Financial Services, filed 2026-10-15) [research]
2026-10-16LYVLYV convertible notes: size n/a, 3.125% coupon (Communication Services, filed 2026-10-16) [research]

ETH validator queues (0 new)

Exit 15.6d (10d+ watch) · Entry 0.0d (empty) · ETH $2,408 · 16:00 UTC

ETH fwd returns after days like this — n: exit 3 · entry 47 (empty = drift, not signal):

             30d   60d   90d    1y
exit avg    +16%   +3%  -11%  -54%
exit med    +16%   +3%  -11%  -54%
entry avg    +6%   +8%  +18%  +24%
entry med    +0%   +5%  +24%  +22%

no crossings in this window

Source health

sourcestatuslast runnote
form4ok2026-10-17T16:24:53Z24 rows filtered (non-scenario or <$100K) · 15 sub-$100K clusters filtered · 139 buys + 46 clusters outside role gate [founder,cfo] filtered (FORM4_QUALIFYING_ROLES widens; FORM4_KEEP_DIRECTORS=1 reverts)
atmok2026-10-17T16:24:53ZATM (non-convert) events are a frozen study snapshot — only converts update on the box; latest convert filing 2026-10-16
ethqueueok2026-10-17T16:24:53Zexit 15.6d / entry 0.0d @ 2026-10-17T16:00:14Z
bigtechok2026-10-17T16:24:53Zdisabled — upstream retired (@BigTechAlert dark since Oct 2025); set FININTEL_BIGTECH_DSN or FININTEL_BIGTECH_API to re-enable
wordcountok2026-10-17T16:25:42Zquarter 2026Q4 (partial), latest filing 2026-10-16; backfill phase=4 — baselines incomplete
ledger13fok2026-10-17T16:25:42Zlatest overlap record: 2026-06-30
indexaddok2026-10-17T16:25:44Z593 events on main
earningsok2026-10-17T16:25:45Zphase-0 (plan only), 3 decisions open