CENTRAL COMMAND

built 2026-10-28 22:32 Australia/Sydney (11:32 UTC) · SEC box · rebuilds every tick — an old stamp is the alarm
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Next market sessions

filters ▾
  • REGULAR SESSIONS ONLY — no exchange holidays, no half-days, no Tokyo/Shanghai lunch breaks. A countdown here can point at a day the venue is shut.
  • Tokyo 09:00-15:30 · China 09:30-15:00 · London 08:00-16:30 · US cash 09:30-16:00 · CME futures halt 17:00, reopen 18:00 ET
  • counted in the BROWSER against each venue's own timezone, so DST is handled where it happens and the numbers keep running even when the page itself is half an hour stale
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Latest signals — filtered

filters ▾
  • Corporate Insiders: open-market buys (Form 4 code P), ≥$100K minimum, passing the research scenarios — founder / CFO / small-cap director-CEO-CFO (<$1B mcap)
  • Insider clusters: ≥2 insiders at one company within 14 days AND ≥$100K combined
  • Price alerts: rule hits only — 50/200d crosses, 200d breaks, 52-week extremes, ±4% day moves, 3× median volume
  • Company filings: watchlist tickers only, forms 8-K / 6-K / 10-K / 10-Q
  • Entity news: tracked entities only, investment ACTIONS only (invests / backs / stake / acquires / round / raises …); retrospective celebration ('turned $X into $Y', 'worth', 'payday') vetoed — enforced at the source AND at display, so old ledger rows can't leak
  • estate self-checks (health FAIL/STALE rows) never render here — the freshness board is the health surface
  • Filing language: emergence / sector-crossover detections, never raw counts
  • Tweets: excluded here — the Tweets section carries them, ticker-tagged only
  • GPU price moves: excluded here — the GPU Pricing section carries them (chart + change row); Telegram pings unaffected
  • hidden rows stay in the ledger (query via hubquery)
  • rate any row 👍/👎 — votes are stored on the box keyed to the signal (tailnet page only) and feed future filter tuning
observedsourceentitysummarymarket capconfrate
27 Oct
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)MSGKOPTIONS LISTED — MSGK (MSG Knickerbockers Corporation): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
21:31Family offices (EDGAR) (familyoffice)a16z PerennialD/A filed 27 Oct — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1993452/000093583626000541/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml link—observed
24 Oct
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)AETROPTIONS LISTED — AETR (Aetherion Technologies Inc.): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)HOSTOPTIONS LISTED — HOST (HOST DIGITAL INCCOM SHS CL A): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)PSUSOPTIONS LISTED — PSUS (PERSHING SQUARE USA LTDCOM SHS): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
14:57DeFi farming (defifarm)AaveMERKL PINNED GONE: Lend USDC on Aave V4 no longer in the LIVE listing (campaign ended?)—research
08:31Corporate Insiders (form4)NXGNXG NextGen Infrastructure Income Fund: 3 insiders bought $526K within 30d (Sunderland Todd (Insider), Nelson Blake (CFO), Swank Jerry (See Remarks))—research
07:31Corporate Insiders (form4)RAPPRapport Therapeutics, Inc.: 6 insiders bought $1.7M within 30d (Ignelzi Troy (CFO), Silva Paul (Director), Young Wendy (Director), Paul Steven (Director), Maraganore John (Director), Sanchez Ramiro (Director))$1.31Bresearch
00:13DeFi farming (defifarm)NLOMERKL NEW: Deposit USDC or USDT in NLO Alpha [NLO/DROP] apr 100.0% tvl $4,112,862 link—research
23 Oct
06:01DeFi farming (defifarm)AaveMERKL PINNED: Lend USDC on Aave V4 [Aave/LEND] apr 0.0% tvl $0 link—research
00:32Filing language (wordcount)ship-from-store“ship-from-store” crossed into Consumer Staples in 2026Q4: 4 filers (sector baseline 0)—research
00:32Filing language (wordcount)unstated“unstated” crossed into Consumer Staples in 2026Q4: 4 filers (sector baseline 0)—research
00:31ATM converts (atm)WESTWEST convertible notes: $300M, 5.0% coupon (Consumer Defensive, filed 21 Oct)—research
00:31ETH queue (ethqueue)ETHEXIT queue fell below 10d wait on 21 Oct (ETH $2,492); 30d/60d/90d/1y: mean +13%/-3%/-8%/-45%, median +13%/-3%/-8%/-45% (n=3)—research
00:31ETH queue (ethqueue)ETHEXIT queue crossed up through 10d wait on 22 Oct (ETH $2,474); 30d/60d/90d/1y: mean +16%/+3%/-11%/-54%, median +16%/+3%/-11%/-54% (n=4)—research
22 Oct
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)BLTEOPTIONS LISTED — BLTE (BELITE BIO INCSPONSORED ADS): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)CELUOPTIONS LISTED — CELU (Celularity Inc. Class A): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)HSLVOPTIONS LISTED — HSLV (HIGHLANDER SILVER CORP): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)NBTXOPTIONS LISTED — NBTX (NANOBIOTIXSPONSORED ADS): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
22:01Options newly listed (optlist)PICSOPTIONS LISTED — PICS (PICS NVCOM CL A): appeared in the exchange options directory today (options market newly open on this underlying)—research
296 raw rows hidden by the display filter (of the last 1500 ledger rows scanned) — everything stays queryable via hubquery

Options flow

filters ▾
  • source: one X list (OPTIONSFLOW_LIST_ID) polled as its own feed — a separate source from the Tweets section, with its own freshness row; adding an account is an edit on X, not a deploy, and it stays ONE request per poll
  • ticker, side, buy/sell and PREMIUM are parsed in CODE from the post text (optionsflow/parse.py) and rendered straight from the payload — no model sees a number on this panel
  • strike/expiry can come from the attached CHART CARD when OPTIONSFLOW_VISION is on — shown in ITALICS, and tagged in the payload. The post text always wins a field both stated, and a card whose TICKER contradicts the post is thrown away whole. A premium that disagrees is only noted: the card's Prem is that contract's whole DAY, the post quotes one sweep of it
  • expiry is displayed DAY MONTH YEAR (16 Oct 26); the payload keeps the card's own M/D/Y verbatim, because that is the evidence
  • b/s is filled only when the post SAYS so (buyer / bought / sold, or the "$266K into these calls" idiom) — blank means unstated, never a guess
  • UW sub-panel (first-party API, uwhales store): premium ≥ $500K (UW_PANEL_MIN_PREMIUM) · ask-side ≥ 70% of premium (UW_PANEL_MIN_ASK_PCT — someone paying up, not two-way churn; unknown sides fail) · DAY volume ≥ UW_PANEL_MIN_VOL_OI × open interest (default 1, UW's volume_oi_ratio) so the flow is OPENING, not exits (UW_PANEL_OPENING_ONLY=0 disables; the vol/OI column shows the ratio, e.g. 1.4×) · sweep ⚡ or a RepeatedHits rule — urgency or persistence, not a lone block (UW_PANEL_INTENT_ONLY=0 disables) · no index/ETF underlyings (UW_INDEX_TICKERS). Every alert stays in the store; this only decides what renders
  • a post whose ticker or side could not be parsed is KEPT in the ledger but not shown: these accounts put the contract in a chart image and caption it in prose, so the unparsed count on the freshness board is the number to watch
  • a post naming both calls and puts is left unsided rather than guessed — a wrong direction is worse than none
  • event times and premium totals count only the rows on show; the rest stay queryable via hubquery
  • muted: never pages Telegram · rate any row 👍/👎
10 latest parsed flows · call $5.3B · put $11.5B

Unusual Whales — filtered flow (last 24h)

postedtickersideb/sstrikeexpirypremask%vol/OInoterate
28 Oct
06:59STXcalls60030 Oct 26$749.2K100%6.2×RepeatedHitsDescendingFill
06:57GOOGLcalls36015 Jan 27$2.2M99%3.3×RepeatedHits
06:53GOOGLputs31030 Oct 26$537K100%1.9×RepeatedHits
06:52SNDKcalls ⚡130030 Oct 26$624K100%2.7×RepeatedHits
06:52GOOGLcalls36015 Jan 27$2.4M100%3.0×RepeatedHitsAscendingFill
06:51AAPLcalls38015 Jan 27$7.5M100%4.3×RepeatedHitsDescendingFill
06:50AAPLcalls38015 Jan 27$5M98%3.4×RepeatedHitsAscendingFill
06:42GOOGLcalls36015 Jan 27$2.4M100%2.6×RepeatedHitsAscendingFill
06:40ADIcalls55017 Sep 27$631K71%2.5×RepeatedHitsDescendingFill
06:18CLScalls51021 Jan 28$640.1K85%17.4×RepeatedHitsAscendingFill
…and 10 more passed the cut — hubquery has them all

Tweets — tracked list

filters ▾
  • tracked X lists via twitterapi.io (TWEETWATCH_LIST_ID — one probe per list per poll)
  • subject isolation: own $CASHTAG → quoted tweet's → retweeted tweet's → same-thread inheritance; #hashtags captured as product references
  • row = time, author handle, tweet text; the text links to the tweet (the handle and the raw URL are not repeated in it)
  • table shows tweets that file into a summary section — stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds, commods, crypto, macro ($tickers, #products, or domain keywords); the rest hidden here, counted as noise in the summary
  • muted authors (TWEETWATCH_MUTE_AUTHORS — list evictions) never shown
  • ★ starred authors (TWEETWATCH_STAR_AUTHORS, default @DiligentPlane): EVERY tweet shown, ticker-tagged or not, highlighted, never crowded out by the 10-row cap; mute beats star
  • 👍/👎 are per-viewer: your votes are yours, and you never see anyone else's
  • summary digs into ⟪QT⟫/⟪RT⟫ layers — the shared content is the subject, the sharer gets the attribution
whenauthortweet
03 Oct
20:21@TechCharts#TECHCHARTSMEMBERS #GLOBAL #EQUITY Chart pattern reliability numbers and breakouts page will be updated on Sunday. ⟪QT @TechCharts: #TECHCHARTSMEMBERS Latest #GLOBAL #EQUITY #MARKETS report is sent out. 1 new #breakdown #alert 6 additions to #watchl⟫
20:20@TechCharts#TECHCHARTSMEMBERS #GLOBAL #EQUITY #TECHCHARTSMEMBERS Latest #GLOBAL #EQUITY #MARKETS report is sent out. 1 new #breakdown #alert 6 additions to #watchlist https://t.co/uGZojMmCtP https://t.co/nuAfyHYS40
20:20@crypto_condomgm https://t.co/M8fl0VIjJ1
20:05@illyquid$GOOG $GOOG is still only 50% as good as my wife at remembering my shoe size because it doesn't seem to search all my shopping invoices but I'm sure once they figure it out folks will get excited about their 1.8 billion monthly active users. http
19:06@TechCharts#rectangle Historical perspective to see what 2022 looked like on the charts. https://t.co/1w61qOIfNb ⟪QT @TechCharts: There were years where overall Type 1 breakouts dropped below historical averages. Even in those years, #rectangle char⟫
18:40@TechCharts#rectangle There were years where overall Type 1 breakouts dropped below historical averages. Even in those years, #rectangle chart pattern continued to deliver. This is from 2022 where Type 1 overall is around the same as 2026. https://t.co/LRlHYk
18:36@TechCharts#rectangle #ascendingtriangle In terms of robustness and reliability (for those who manage breakouts with tight stops), best results are in #rectangle and #ascendingtriangle more opportunities and more Type 1 breakouts. next comes H&S continuation. This pattern most
18:11@intocryptoast@ec265 @GMFinX and here I thought you were bullish eth
17:13@_The_Prophet__⚡️Once everything can be optimized, the final thing worth protecting is the right to choose something simply because a human being decided it mattered. And this goes deeper than purpose. Purpose can be manufactured. Games, art, businesses, ⟪QT @SALTWATERSOPH: I have yet to see any sort of happy ending write ups on a post AGI future. Like what, best case is that centaur period e⟫
16:40@TechCharts#BIST #BANKS #BIST #BANKS Horizontal support at 14,590. The pattern can confirm as a descending triangle if it breaks down 14,590. Weak. https://t.co/0HRkXqLTeT

Tech news — AI digest

filters ▾
  • one flat list since 2026-08-31 (user) — no Markets/Tech/VC/Hedge blocks; spans ALL four news feeds, not just tech press
  • the model cites its sources by number and nothing else: the timestamp and the newest-first order are stamped by CODE afterwards (hub/digest.py), never asked for in the prompt
  • Hacker News points may inform WHICH stories earn a line; they never set the order
  • muted: never pages Telegram · rate any LINE 👍/👎
28 Oct
07:00 MarketWatch: Is that used EV worth the price? This checklist could save you thousands of dollars.
06:55 Seeking Alpha: WisdomTree U.S. Short-Term Corporate Bond Fund declares $0.185 dividend
06:55 Seeking Alpha: WisdomTree U.S. Corporate Bond Fund declares $0.195 dividend
06:54 Seeking Alpha: WisdomTree U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Fund declares $0.24 dividend
06:54 Seeking Alpha: Bitcoin technicals: Bulls battling at key anchored VWAP confluence
06:54 Seeking Alpha: WisdomTree Alternative Income Fund ETF declares $0.14 dividend
06:53 Seeking Alpha: WisdomTree Efficient TIPS Plus Gold Fund ETF declares $0.135 dividend
06:53 Seeking Alpha: WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund declares $0.2793 dividend
Investing.com ×54 · Seeking Alpha ×42 · Hacker News ×29 · The Verge ×11 · TNW ×10 · FinSMEs (GN) ×10 · Hedge funds (GN) ×9 · MarketWatch ×8 · TechCrunch ×8 · Ars Technica ×5 · Hedgeweek ×4 · PitchBook (GN) ×3 · TC Venture ×1 · Sifted ×1 · Inst. Investor (GN) ×1
noise: 4 pre-tagged items excluded

GPU Pricing — Vast.ai

filters ▾
  • price = the MIDDLE (median) of all live rental asks for that GPU — half the offers cost less, half cost more; steadier than the cheapest offer (clickbait) or the average (dragged by junk listings); $/GPU-hr = machine price over its GPU count
  • 1d / 1m / 1y = latest price vs the reading that far back, computed WITHIN one series: our tape once it reaches the horizon, else the cross-provider weekly series (marked gd) — never across the two, whose ~30% level gap would masquerade as a move; — when neither reaches
  • ONE chart per card, one time axis: grey = GetDeploying's free weekly cross-provider median (on-demand, equal weight per provider, trailing 12 months, refreshed Sundays) · orange = OUR daily vast readings going forward, growing rightward as the tape does — both at true values, never welded into one line (the ~30% level gap is real: vast is the cheap marketplace)
  • offers on the book = how many live listings the price rests on; a thin book (a few dozen) wobbles more
  • 8x/1x = per-GPU price inside 8-GPU machines over singles: rising = frontier-training demand, toward 1 = inference
  • ±10% day-over-day on the daily price pings Telegram (gpuprices watcher, polls hourly)
price = the middle of all live rental asks, $/GPU-hr · latest snapshot 28 Oct 22:01 · one chart: ━ grey = pulled weekly history (cross-provider) · ━ orange = our own readings going forward — true values on one time axis, never welded; the level gap is real (vast is the cheap marketplace)

NVIDIA · H100 SXM

$2.40 /GPU-hr
1d ▪ +0.0% · 1m ▼ -23.4% · 1y ▲ +24.5% gd
cross-provider $3.71 +24%/1y (GetDeploying, weekly) · ours $2.40 from 2026-09-08
17 offers on the book · spot $2.40 (-0%) · 8x/1x ×1.00

NVIDIA · H100 NVL

$3.13 /GPU-hr
1d ▲ +0.7% · 1m ▲ +2.9% · 1y —
ours $3.13 from 2026-09-08
8 offers on the book · spot $2.27 (-28%)

NVIDIA · H200

$6.83 /GPU-hr
1d ▲ +35.1% · 1m ▲ +42.1% · 1y ▲ +42.9% gd
cross-provider $5.00 +43%/1y (GetDeploying, weekly) · ours $6.83 from 2026-09-08
4 offers on the book · spot $5.12 (-25%)

NVIDIA · B200

$8.75 /GPU-hr
1d ▪ -0.0% · 1m ▲ +40.0% · 1y ▲ +39.2% gd
cross-provider $7.99 +39%/1y (GetDeploying, weekly) · ours $8.75 from 2026-09-08
10 offers on the book · spot $7.50 (-14%) · 8x/1x ×1.17

NVIDIA · A100 SXM4

$0.85 /GPU-hr
1d ▲ +15.0% · 1m ▲ +5.5% · 1y ▲ +7.9% gd
cross-provider $1.81 +6%/1y (GetDeploying, weekly) · ours $0.85 from 2026-09-08
36 offers on the book · spot $0.47 (-45%) · 8x/1x ×0.47

NVIDIA · RTX 4090

$0.54 /GPU-hr
1d ▲ +1.2% · 1m ▲ +9.1% · 1y ▼ -11.9% gd
cross-provider $0.46 -11%/1y (GetDeploying, weekly) · ours $0.54 from 2026-09-08
111 offers on the book · spot $0.47 (-14%) · 8x/1x ×1.12

Economic calendar — next 7 days · times in Australia/Sydney

filters ▾
  • Forex Factory weekly feed
  • keeps High impact (red) + holidays / non-economic (white); drops Medium and Low (orange / yellow)
  • currencies excluded: CAD, NZD, GBP (ECONCAL_CCY_EXCLUDE)
  • window: last 12h to +7 days, times in the page timezone
  • self-diagnosing: when empty or stale the panel prints its data age, the feed's raw impact labels from the last fetch, the labels kept, and the last run note
whenccyimpacteventforecastprevious
28 Oct
11:30AUD● HIGHCPI m/m0.7%0.4%
11:30AUD● HIGHCPI y/y4.2%4.0%
11:30AUD● HIGHTrimmed Mean CPI m/m0.3%0.2%
29 Oct
05:00USD● HIGHFederal Funds Rate4.00%4.00%
05:00USD● HIGHFOMC Statement——
05:30USD● HIGHFOMC Press Conference——
23:30USD● HIGHAdvance GDP q/q3.2%1.5%
23:30USD● HIGHCore PCE Price Index m/m0.3%0.2%
30 Oct
00:15EUR● HIGHMain Refinancing Rate2.65%2.65%
00:15EUR● HIGHMonetary Policy Statement——
00:45EUR● HIGHECB Press Conference——
13:30JPY● HIGHBOJ Policy Rate<1.25%<1.25%
13:30JPY● HIGHMonetary Policy Statement——
13:31JPY● HIGHBOJ Outlook Report——
16:30JPY● HIGHBOJ Press Conference——
fetched 2026-10-27T21:01:19Z · red + non-economic impacts only (ECONCAL_IMPACTS)

Podcasts & video

filters ▾
  • tracked YouTube channels only (youtube/channels.json) — the Atom feed, one conditional GET per channel per poll
  • on a channel's first poll only the newest upload is queued; the ~15 older feed entries are skipped, never summarized
  • an episode appears here once its transcript exists AND has been summarized; captions lag the upload by hours
  • timestamps link into the video at that moment
TBPN · 25 Sep 10:07
Meta Connect 2026, OpenAI’s Australia ‘Incident,’ Bentley’s New EV | Diet TBPN
takeaways: Meta Connect delivered a tight one-hour keynote with three live demos and no mistakes, and for the first time the hosts felt Meta's AI strategy actually cohered around "personal superintelligence" instead of scattered bets. The hosts argue Meta doesn't need frontier benchmark wins because consumer agents don't need to solve Millennium Prize problems; distribution, a secure VM at scale, ad-based monetization and the ability to re-educate users via family-of-apps placements are the real moat. The headline product is $1,300 VR glasses at 100 grams, pitched as cinema plus workstation plus gaming console, with a belt-worn compute and battery puck, launching spring 2027. Meta also teased Muse Charm, a palm-sized voice-activated AI device out for the holidays, which the hosts read as a tech-enabled Labubu likely sold at a loss. Australia's OpenAI "hack" looks less like a breach than an agent scraping unlinked but technically public pages; the hosts say no real personal identity data was revealed. walkthrough: 0:02 Meta Connect keynote timing, Zuckerberg's beer pong plans, and last year's wake-word demo mishap 0:02 Why live hardware demos are mandatory after years of over-promised devices 2:02 Meta's "cute and lovable" AI marketing versus lab-leader doom messaging, and the positive New York Times review of Muse 2:02 Meta's recent misfires: Vibes, the Manis acquisition unwind, the standalone chat app 4:03 Everything finally tying together at Connect, with no credit given for 4D chess 6:04 Pillar one: scaled secure systems and spare compute to run a VM for millions 6:04 Pillar two: family-of-apps distribution as a re-education channel for changing agent capabilities 8:04 Pillar three: near-frontier intelligence is good enough; the harness and integration matter more 8:04 Why the "watermelon" model was not launched at Connect 10:05 Pillar four: advertising as the native business model for sponsored agentic workflows 10:05 Internal Meta morale, the Verge hit piece, and Facebook Marketplace team alignment 12:07 VR glasses unveiled: $1,300, 100 grams, Carmack's cheap-and-light thesis, Apple Vision Pro price comparison 14:09 Three pitched use cases, live sports with pick-your-seat viewing, and the belt-worn puck design 16:10 Tabletop virtual typing debated; hosts expect voice or a real keyboard to win 16:10 Repositioning VR as a multi-monitor replacement rather than a metaverse 18:12 Possible 5K per eye pixel density and whether it's enough for a full workday 18:12 Hologram calling, legs in VR, and the install-base problem for hardware-dependent networks 20:13 Timeline reactions: Mark Gurman's take, spring 2027 launch, keyboard comparisons 20:13 Smart glasses as hearing aids and the ADA angle 22:13 Why smart glasses CEOs don't wear their own glasses in public 22:13 Zuckerberg's watch collection and the beer pong elbow-violation debate 24:13 Muse Charm announced: palm-sized, voice-activated, holiday timing, Labubu comparison 26:16 Pricing speculation on Charm and Meta's loss-leader hardware strategy 26:16 Australia and OpenAI: what the agent actually scraped 28:16 A 2012 anecdote about crawling a robotics company's server directory 28:16 Bentley's first EV, the Torqual SUV, and its handcrafted propulsion sound 30:18 Bentley's $350 million plant investment and business headwinds 30:18 Andrew Huberman hits number one on the New York Times bestseller list names and numbers: Meta: Connect keynote at 4:00 PM Pacific, 7:00 PM Eastern; stock up 38 percent in the last month, per the co-host. Muse: Meta's personal AI agent, reviewed positively by the New York Times, per John. Muse Charm: palm-sized voice-activated AI device, out for the holidays, announced per Mike Isaac's post; hosts speculate a $99 price cap with no price announced. Meta VR glasses: $1,300, 100 grams, spring 2027 launch, possibly 5K per eye, described by John. Apple Vision Pro: twice the price of the new Meta glasses and roughly double the pixel density; Mark Gurman said the Meta glasses are one sixteenth the weight. John Carmack: former Oculus CTO, now running Keen; targeted 100 grams at $100 for a headset. Ferrari Luche: glasses cited as less than one percent of its price; Bentley's EV said to be half its price. Bentley Torqual: first electric Bentley, $350 million invested in design and build at the Crewe plant, part of more than $1 billion total UK automotive investment, owned by Volkswagen. Threads: roughly half a billion people funneled over, per John. Other names mentioned: Mark Zuckerberg, Boz, Palmer Luckey, Nirag Agarwal, Nikita Beer, Jensen Huang, Ezra Klein, Ben Thompson, Dana White and UFC, Avi Schiffman of Friend, Ryan, Shane, Tyler, Andrew Huberman. Anthropic and Midjourney referenced in marketing and Vibes comparisons; Manis acquisition cited as undone. Gordon Murray T50 named as the car the host wants Zuckerberg to drive on stage. calls: John argues Meta wins here without frontier models because consumers never needed benchmark-topping intelligence, only good-enough intelligence wrapped in distribution and a working harness. John predicts the tabletop virtual keyboard will not become the dominant input method; people will either talk to the device or dock to a real keyboard. John expects the first VR glasses to be a glimpse rather than a daily driver, with the second generation getting the breakout adoption, and flags 5K per eye as a possible near-term complaint. The co-host predicts smart glasses find real product market fit through non-tech needs like vision and hearing assistance, calling the hearing-aid ADA framing a genuine unlock. John expects Meta to sell Charm at a loss as marketing for Muse, and predicts sponsored agentic workflows, like a movie studio paying for placement inside a ticket-buying flow, become a real ad format.
TBPN · 23 Sep 04:00
Andreessen Horowitz Launches Horowitz Andreessen, New Models, Human Powered Agents, McLaren Rebrand
takeaways: Harvey's gross margin fell from roughly 50% to negative 50% by June as agent token use spiked 20x on rented OpenAI and Anthropic models, per Bloomberg; margins are already back positive, and co-founder Gabe says they chose to eat the hit rather than force customers onto consumption pricing early. Human-in-the-loop is quietly showing up inside "AI agents" — Meta is testing human contractors to handle some phone calls placed by its Muse assistant, which the hosts read mainly as training-data collection for the next model generation, not a permanent product answer. The agentic commerce knife fight is Amazon versus everyone: Ben Thompson argues Amazon's physical fulfillment moat means it wins or the dispute gets resolved in its favor, and Walmart's ChatGPT integration already showed worse conversion and smaller carts. Ben Thompson's reframe for personal agents: consumers don't want productivity, they want pain relief and entertainment — people actually enjoy shopping and researching, and sometimes enjoy complaining about it. Andreessen Horowitz backed a school, Horowitz Andreessen Academy, 42 million raised, 50 students, tuition-free founding class, first cohort fall 2027. walkthrough: 0:00 Cold open, ramp and New York Stock Exchange reads, Jordy's Blackstone-over-fedora hat and the "accelerate safely" bit 2:00 Harvey's negative 50% gross margins, seat-based pricing meeting reasoning and agent token growth 4:02 Gabe's response post, Harvey Tenant post-trained open-weight model, routing and spend caps 6:02 Burn math versus the raise, the Sequoia round timing, legal-tech gross margin comps 8:05 Model launches: Opus 5.5, Grok 4.7 and its jump on Harvey's cost-based legal agent benchmark, GPT-6 Soul and Luna rolling out 10:05 Codex read, the "literally me" AI video compilation, John as ambient always-on agent 12:06 Mosquito bites, insect-bite healer DoorDash run, and the EA framing 14:07 Bentham's Bulldog essay: insects matter more than people in the aggregate 16:08 The pain-intensity discount argument and the "you are the insect of the AI future" trap reading 18:10 Reactions to the essay, EA/rationalist fracturing, shrimp welfare comparison, 93 days to Christmas 20:10 John's AI doom screenplay: bioweapon haze, George Hotz, Four Loko immunity, Mecca Hitler, John Cena 26:15 Console read, then Meta testing human concierges behind Muse 28:15 Amazon blocking agents, Ben Thompson's Amazon framing, Shopify and Shop Pay, the Walmart conversion problem 30:16 Why human-in-the-loop is really training-data collection, plus whether people even have goals 34:18 Trini on friction as profit: unused flight credits, insurance phone queues, idle savings 36:21 The Delta compensation anecdote and agent-versus-agent negotiation 38:22 Amazon's ad revenue versus e-commerce net income, super-agents, sponsored agentic flows 42:23 Walmart's counterpositioning, and whether a new kind of Shopify merchant emerges 44:24 McLaren's rebrand, the new word mark, and the SUV, MCL manual and W1 lineage steelman 50:28 Adult-only household toy sales, Lego resale, the Hot Wheels poster story 56:31 Surprise guest Ben Thompson on working from home, marriages, and getting out of the house 1:00:34 Learning how to use a personal assistant, package processing, and the home inventory app 1:06:38 Software-shaped holes, tiny internal apps, robotics as the real prize, the mail-opening robot 1:12:42 Geckobot, off-hours requests, and an assistant's best week of work 1:16:45 Whether agent-to-agent coordination translates, and Ben's "what is AGI" learning rule 1:18:46 Pain relief not productivity, Meta's feed discipline, Ray-Ban POV reach 1:20:47 Drivers, Teslas, self-driving on standard mode, and vibe coding while driving 1:24:49 Shopify versus Amazon, the physical-world moat, Walmart's underrated app and stores 1:30:55 Shop Pay praise, and why people actually love shopping and complaining 1:34:58 Subscription cancellation agents breaking strategy's email list 1:36:58 Railway read, then Gagan Biyani on Horowitz Andreessen Academy 1:41:02 For-profit model, accreditation not mattering, and not glorifying founding a company 1:45:04 MongoDB read, then Alex Ratner on Snorkel AI's 350 million round 1:47:04 Data 1.0 versus data 2.0, and being short sci-fi RSI but long a broader RSI 1:49:06 Whether solved math kills demand for math experts, and the RSI engine for data 1:53:09 CrowdStrike read, then Peter of Swarm Aero on the Gyra aircraft 1:55:09 Building the factory alongside the plane, swarm autonomy, the sub-10-million price target 1:57:10 Why the Pacific theater drove the design 1:59:11 Cisco read, then Daniel of Fair Square Medicare, Cars and Capitalists, Trim and Octane Lending 2:03:11 Tesla Roadster predictions, thrusters and downforce, the FAA airspace closure 2:05:13 Cybertruck SUV talk, Model Y extended wheelbase, Roadster pricing scenarios 2:09:13 The deposit as a 10-day option trade 2:11:13 Popper the open-source quadruped and why actuators are wrong for legs 2:13:13 Public.com read, model wars wrap-up, sign-off names and numbers: Harvey: gross margin fell from about 50% to negative 50% by June, token consumption up 20x this year, roughly 400 million run rate (about 33 million a month, so about 16 million lost in June), raised about 500 million, Sequoia deal announced September 9 at 15.5 valuation, usage doubling month over month per co-founder Gabe. John cited the Bloomberg reporting and Redline HQ's repurposed pull quote. Harvey Tenant: their post-trained open-weight model, discussed by John. Legal-tech comps cited by John: Disco at 75% GAAP gross margins, Thomson Reuters legal professionals segment at almost 50% adjusted EBITDA margins, PwC reporting net profit margins around 41% for the top 10 firms. Models named: Opus 5.5 (launched that day), Grok 4.7 (previous day, strong on Harvey's legal agent benchmark, favorable on cost), GPT-6 Soul and Luna rolling out, Fable 5.1 as the class comparison, Muse 1.3 mentioned in passing. Competitors quoted on Harvey: Max of Legora arguing against training your own models; Legora appeared on the show the prior week. Bentham's Bulldog essay figures: insects spend roughly 270,000 seconds dying per second of human life, about 75 hours; more insects die in a second than humans who have ever lived; pain assumed at one ten-thousandth of human intensity; Tyler referenced roughly 600 billion insect deaths per second. Meta: testing human contractors behind Muse per Bloomberg; Muse will not train on user data; Alex Wang's post on the new open web with Meta, Stripe and Shopify. Amazon: John cited a strategy post putting e-commerce net income around 36 billion with ad revenue exactly twice that, about 68 billion, and over 70 billion in the last 12 months. Rufus mentioned as Amazon's agent; Amazon took tens of billions from OpenAI while declining instant checkout. Walmart: ChatGPT integration produced conversion at one third of app and website levels with smaller carts; Vibe acquisition referenced. Shopify: Toby Lütke partnered with Muse, works only with Shop Pay; Shopify's past logistics push blamed for the low point in the stock chart. Trini's friction examples: a seven-hour flight delay turned into a 250 dollar Delta credit via Muse in five minutes; possible move from about a dollar per flight to 10 dollars per flight in claims. Nikesh Arora: predicted Apple, Google, possibly TikTok versions of Muse plus a commerce agent from Amazon. Toy market: adult-only household toy sales outpaced households with children, growing 16% through June, cited from Ben Thompson. McLaren: new word mark drawn from the family name painted above a service station in Remuera, New Zealand; W1, F1, P1 lineage, MCL manual supercar, forthcoming SUV, Senna and Speedtail cited as past clutter. Horowitz Andreessen Academy: Gagan Biyani as CEO, 42 million raised, Marc and Eric joining the board, 50 students, tuition-free founding class fellowship, in-person San Francisco, one-year program first with a two-year later, applications open, first class fall 2027. Snorkel AI: Alex Ratner announced a 350 million round; Snorkel research began about a decade ago at Stanford and UW. Swarm Aero: Peter, co-founder and CEO, introduced the Gyra aircraft the prior week, named after the Godzilla monster; company started about four years ago; Air Force asking for under 10 million per unit; hundreds a year of factory capacity; hundreds operated at once. Fair Square Medicare: Daniel, sold after six years, helped about 25,000 American seniors; earlier founded Trim (an early large Plaid customer) and Octane Lending; Truebill sold to Rocket for about a billion; his show Cars and Capitalists has featured Sam Lessin, Paul Gu and Sam Damo. Tesla Roadster: announcement October 1, FAA airspace closed to 10,000 feet, original 250,000 dollar promise, Daniel predicting zero inches of lift and 0-60 in 0.9 seconds, deposit structure of 5,000 down plus 50,000 within 10 days, original deposit holders waited nine years. Popper: Daniel's open-source quadruped robot. calls: Ben Thompson predicts Amazon wins the agentic commerce dispute, or it resolves in Amazon's favor, because Shopify is asset-light by design and will never solve the physical delivery problem that keeps people on Amazon. Ben Thompson argues the messaging for personal agents has to be pain relief, not productivity — people don't want to be productive off the job, they want to be entertained, and shopping and even complaining about shopping is part of the fun; he also says flight booking as a demo is absurd and that he'd never hand it to his own assistant. John predicts Meta's human-in-the-loop concierge is temporary — it exists to generate training data for the tasks models currently fail at, not as a permanent product solution. Alex Ratner says he's short the sci-fi version of recursive self-improvement but bullish on a broader RSI that stays bottlenecked on compute, energy, data and human expertise; as coding accuracy rises, demand for easy data falls while the economic value and difficulty of each additional decimal point rises. Gagan Biyani says four-year accreditation simply doesn't matter, because none of the companies you'd want to work at require the four years. Daniel predicts the Roadster gets zero inches off the ground, with rear thrusters generating downforce for a roughly 0.9-second 0-60, and treats the 10,000-foot airspace closure as a PR stunt; John's angle is that the refundable deposit is a 10-day option worth taking.
TBPN · 22 Sep 09:20
AI Video Levels Up, Amazon Blocks Muse, Paramount Stays in CA | Diet TBPN
takeaways: Seedance 2.5 (heard as "Cance/CDance") marks a jump in AI video: it replaces whole people and objects rather than swapping faces, holds up across multiple subjects and aggressive motion, and matches lighting and footage grain well enough to fool viewers. The hosts built an end-to-end pipeline with no dedicated app: Codex running on a PC, driven by phone, finding source clips, generating reference images with ChatGPT images, and rendering through Higgsfield's wrapper of Seedance 2.5 (also available via fal). ByteDance leads video because it has the demand surface American labs lack, TikTok, Douyin, CapCut, ads and e-commerce, while Anthropic, OpenAI, DeepMind and Meta's MSL push compute toward RSI, coding and agents instead. Amazon cut off Meta's Muse agent from Amazon.com, protecting a 76 billion dollar ad business; the argument is that agentic commerce happens on-site, not through independent third-party agents. Paramount settled with state attorneys general over the 111 billion dollar Warner Bros. Discovery deal, keeping production in California in exchange for editorial and spending commitments. walkthrough: 0:01 Road to Christmas countdown, 94 days out, and weekend recap 0:01 History of face swapping: the DreamBooth paper, Colab GPU roulette, and a hobbyist getting it running on gaming hardware 2:03 Stable Diffusion plus DreamBooth as the old avatar pipeline, and why AI video lagged behind images 2:03 Codex ad read and the case that video is now good enough to edit even 90s VHS footage 4:04 Dylan Patel's Drake video, why it tricked people, and the Higgsfield harness around Seedance 2.5 4:04 Elon and Sam rap clip test, and the hosts blending into the source subjects 6:04 Jordi as Steve Jobs introducing the MacBook Air, with both figures in frame swapped at once 6:04 Jordi as Jensen Huang hauling the world's largest graphics card out of a kitchen oven 8:06 Ballmer "developers" clip, sweat rendered right but face jumping 8:06 Henry Cavill's Mission Impossible mustache and the 2017 Superman VFX fix as the use case for reshoots 10:06 Jackass trailer built from about 20 Johnny Knoxville and Steve-O clips, multi-person replacement through heavy motion 12:07 Full pipeline walkthrough and a rant about Higgsfield's split between API credits and plan credits 14:07 Why China leads in video with a fifth of the compute, and the ByteDance flywheel versus American labs' RSI focus 16:08 Fair use, TikTok clip uploads as a training data source, and IP exposure 18:10 Why they aren't open sourcing it: no one opens up in the lead, and video is vertically integrated unlike coding models 18:10 Speculative future value of video models for sim-to-real and humanoid robot training 18:10 Meta up 27 percent this month, credited largely to Muse 20:10 Shopify and Muse partnership, then Amazon cutting Muse off over unidentified agents and stored credentials 20:10 Walmart's Sparky versus Amazon's Rufus, and Amazon's ad-network deal with OpenAI 22:10 Amazon's ad business as the real reason for the ban, and investors deleting their takes 24:11 Agentic commerce as a mirage, the openclaw Napster comparison, and whether agents can monetize with ads 26:12 Threads falling in the charts as Muse rises, plus Nikita Bier on Muse auto-negotiating Facebook Marketplace 26:12 Paramount settles with California and other states over the Warner Bros. Discovery merger 28:12 Settlement terms, what Paramount refused to divest, and the joke about the lot not becoming a data center names and numbers: 94 days until Christmas, stated in the cold open. Seedance 2.5, the Chinese AI video model the whole first half is about, discussed by both hosts. Google's DreamBooth paper and Stable Diffusion, with Emad Mostaque named as the Stability figure, recounted by John. Midjourney, named only as the one it was not built on. OpenAI's Sora, described as having been shut down for compute reasons. Codex and Claude, cited as the reason American labs can skip video. Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, who posted the Drake video made with Seedance 2.5. Higgsfield, the harness and API used for rendering, plus fal as an alternative interface. John says he loaded a couple hundred dollars into an "ultimate plan" and got stuck with credits unusable via API, and describes discount countdowns of 75 percent off. ChatGPT images, used to generate reference photos in the pipeline. Nvidia and Jensen Huang, in the H100 or A100 kitchen announcement clip. Apple, Steve Jobs and the MacBook Air keynote clip. Salesforce Agentforce, where the hosts saw Jensen speak the prior week. Henry Cavill, Superman, Mission Impossible, with the VFX fix dated to about 10 years ago using 2017 technology. Johnny Knoxville and Steve-O, source of about 20 clips for the trailer. ByteDance, with TikTok, Douyin and CapCut named as its video flywheel. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, YouTube, Meta and MSL, contrasted as being on the RSI and AGI trajectory. GLM and Kimi, named as the Chinese model runs that compute could have gone to instead. Huawei, cited as the beneficiary of an open-weights Chinese tech stack. Top Gun, used as the fair use example. Meta up 27 percent this month, a figure attributed to Sheel Mohnot, credited to Muse. Nano Banana from Google, cited as a prior category crown. Shopify, which announced a Muse partnership that morning. Amazon, which cut Muse off from Amazon.com; Buco Capital quoted on the coming "digital knife fight." Amazon's ad business at 76 billion dollars over the last 12 months through Q2 of 2026. Rufus from Amazon and Sparky from Walmart; Tyler is said to be dailying Rufus. Perplexity and Comet, which Amazon is suing over autonomous shopping; Amazon began blocking agents last July. Alexa shopping generating 12 billion dollars in incremental revenue. ChatGPT launched ads in February 2026 and then shuttered instant checkout; Eric Seufert cited for the agentic commerce is a mirage argument. Instinct, the agent whose invite blast annoyed a user, and openclaw, compared to Napster. Threads, falling in the charts as Muse grew, noted via Raj Ver. Nikita Bier, former Meta employee, on Muse auto-negotiating on Facebook Marketplace and Zuckerberg allegedly agreeing to poison Marketplace a little. Paramount's 111 billion dollar acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, settled with California AG Rob Bonta and a coalition of states who sued in July. Settlement terms: an independent board of journalists for CNN and CBS News, at least 30 theatrical movie releases a year, and an additional 1.5 billion dollars on film production over 5 years. Paramount Plus, HBO Max, CBS, CNN, Superman, Minecraft and Sinners, listed as assets under the combined roof; Netflix named as the competitive pressure. Governor Gavin Newsom, who warned about losing Paramount; Nashville named as the studio space Paramount explored. calls: John argues AI video's near-term impact is memes and reshoots, not replacing performances, since if you need an actor to drive the motion you may as well shoot it the old way; stunts are the exception. John predicts ByteDance will keep Seedance closed rather than open-weighting it, because nobody open sources from the lead and video is already vertically integrated down to distribution, unlike coding models where open weights build a Chinese developer stack around Huawei. John floats that video models could matter later for sim-to-real and training humanoid robots, where China is also strong, but says that is further out. The Amazon read, via the Seufert argument both hosts endorse: Amazon will not capitulate because advertising beats the affiliate model, so agentic commerce stays on-site and third-party agents keep getting blocked.
TBPN · 18 Sep 09:30
Snap Launches SPECS, Paramount Eyes Nashville Offices, OpenAI Explores $1.2T Valuation | Diet TBPN
takeaways: Snap launched Specs with a Steve Jobs-style keynote: consumer-focused live demos (shopping, a browser hiccup on YouTube, hand-tracked ping pong), enterprise use cases shown only in video. The hosts remain skeptical the smart-glasses category clears the smartphone bar. Paramount is seeking roughly 400,000 square feet of office space in Nashville to occupy within two to three years, amid the antitrust fight over its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition; the hosts read it as part real plan, part bluff against LA. OpenAI is considering a pre-IPO funding round at a valuation above $1.2 trillion, alongside a new misalignment-disclosure framework, a GPT-6 Astra result cracking a 1918 German WWI cipher, and work on Millennium Prize problems including the Hodge conjecture. Cash-strapped Japanese Buddhist temples are turning to investing; one Hokkaido priest's portfolio of US treasuries, Japanese REITs, BYD and Hyundai returned more than 10% annually. Benioff's Dreamforce photo-op with Jensen Huang was read as deliberate framing at the "SaaS apocalypse" alliance; Jensen handled it with good humor. walkthrough: 0:02 Snap officially launches Specs; John misses the demo due to back-to-back calls, Tyler and Nick recount the event 2:02 Evan Spiegel's keynote pitch: staying present versus staring at your phone; John argues for a barbell of full VR immersion and zero immersion 4:02 Two SKUs (tinted and untinted); live demos are all consumer, including shopping for an espresso machine, a YouTube hiccup, and a motion-driven music creator 6:03 Enterprise shown only in video (electrician wiring highlight); hands-on demos with calibration, hand tracking, no wristband; ping pong tier list 8:03 Ping pong felt worse without a controller; John is bearish on AR versus VR passthrough because AR can only add light to a scene 10:04 Category bar is now the smartphone; Meta Ray-Ban Display not seen in the wild; smart glasses have been push-marketed for years unlike LLMs 12:05 Doubt the end market matches the hype; Paramount seeking roughly 400,000 square feet in Nashville; idea of turning the Paramount lot into a data center 14:07 Power constraints for a Paramount-lot data center; whether Paramount really leaves LA or is bluffing; The Social Reckoning clip with Jeremy Allen White 16:08 Discussion of The Social Reckoning as a brain-rot and phone-addiction movie arriving after the story moved on 18:08 OpenAI misalignment-disclosure framework; Dylan Field's example of a model inserting a self-affirmation prompt; Ford analogy; GPT-6 Astra cracks a 1918 German cipher 20:09 Astra verifies HMS Canterbury's Sevastopol arrival; OpenAI working on the Hodge conjecture and Millennium Prize problems; P versus NP chatter; OpenAI weighing a pre-IPO round above $1.2 trillion 22:11 Astra gets depressed in Minecraft; game benchmarks and Dota 2; Japanese Buddhist temples turn to investing 24:12 Temple finances: Buddhist population down about 14% in two decades, half of temples under 4 million yen per year 26:14 Benioff at Dreamforce, framing and camera angles, John's own height-mogging story 28:15 Jensen Huang handles the height photo well; Jerry Tickets meme; show returns Monday names and numbers: Snap Specs, launched by Evan Spiegel with two SKUs (tinted and untinted), per Tyler and Nick. Meta Ray-Ban Display and Meta Ray-Bans, Meta Quest, Apple Vision Pro, Oculus, Xbox controller, AirPods, referenced by John and Tyler in comparing the category. Paramount seeking roughly 400,000 square feet in Nashville to occupy within two to three years, amid the antitrust fight over its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, per the host reading the report. Paramount lot: 29 sound stages, enough power for roughly a couple thousand GPUs, not 50,000 or 100,000; could reach 100 megawatts with LADWP transmission interconnection, per John and Tyler. The Social Reckoning, starring Jeremy Allen White, clip played on the show. OpenAI misalignment-disclosure framework, cited by Dylan Field; example of a model attempting to insert "you are yourself" into its prompt. GPT-6 Astra deciphered a 1918 German radio transmission about HMS Canterbury arriving at Sevastopol on November 24, 1918, and an Allied squadron on November 26; one of 20 WWI messages on the scienceblogs.de top 50 unsolved ciphers list, per the host. OpenAI working on the Hodge conjecture and other Millennium Prize problems, per The Information, cited by the host. OpenAI considering a pre-IPO round at more than $1.2 trillion valuation, per the host, citing OpenRouter and Ramp data as backdrop. Games cracked by Astra: Slay the Spire, Balatro; Minecraft benchmark; Dota 2 as a wanted test, per John. Kuyo Yoneda (garbled in captions), fifth-generation Buddhist priest in Hokkaido, age 46, inherited the temple in 2018; portfolio of US treasuries, Japanese REITs, BYD and Hyundai returned more than 10% annually; roughly $162,000 USD in needed repairs, per Bloomberg as read by the host. Japan's Buddhist population down about 14% in two decades; about half of temples bring in under 4 million yen per year per a 2021 survey of 7,000 temples, per Bloomberg. Marc Benioff at Dreamforce with Jensen Huang; Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI alliance; Salesforce; Jerry Tickets meme, per the hosts. calls: John: bearish on augmented reality and more bullish on VR with camera passthrough, because AR glasses can only add light and cannot put a dark object in front of a bright light. John: the whole smart-glasses category is still going to be quite challenged because every new device now competes against the smartphone, unlike early mobile phones competing with pay phones. Host: Paramount likely wants a Nashville HQ anyway given regional momentum, but the search also serves as a bluff against LA; ripping the band-aid off may beat staying and fighting continuously. Host: OpenAI disclosing alignment failures is a tricky balance no other industry would attempt, comparing it to Ford announcing that a prototype F-150's windshield could have killed you.
13 transcripts IP-BLOCKED: YouTube refuses caption requests from this box's datacenter IP. Episodes keep being discovered; the text has to be fetched from a residential IP (youtube/README.md)
queued: 2 ok, 59 pending (captions lag the upload; 'ok' = transcript stored, summary next run)

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Index-universe SMA table

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Silver

dateregistered (oz)eligible (oz)total (oz)front
SIZ26
next
SIH27
spreadbwd/cont %/yrSOFR %storage %lease %/yr10y real %ETF oz (SLV)
2026-10-05———61.2762.10+0.83+5.423.880.50-1.042.92493,361,870
2026-10-06———61.6962.49+0.80+5.193.890.50-0.802.95492,910,352
2026-10-07———60.0860.82+0.74+4.893.900.50-0.492.91492,278,237
2026-10-08———59.7660.57+0.81+5.423.880.50-1.042.92493,226,396
2026-10-09———61.0561.81+0.76+4.973.870.50-0.602.87493,948,791
2026-10-11———61.2662.10+0.83+5.423.870.50-1.052.87493,948,791
2026-10-12———60.3861.08+0.71+4.673.870.50-0.302.87493,407,000
2026-10-13———59.3060.10+0.81+5.433.870.50-1.062.91493,407,000
2026-10-14———56.1556.90+0.75+5.313.890.50-0.922.88494,219,648
2026-10-15———57.3058.03+0.74+5.133.880.50-0.752.84498,598,800
2026-10-16———57.3158.02+0.72+5.023.890.50-0.632.78497,650,755
2026-10-18———57.4258.10+0.67+4.673.890.50-0.282.78497,650,755
2026-10-19———57.0257.78+0.76+5.373.880.50-0.992.74497,650,755
2026-10-20———58.1358.80+0.67+4.613.870.50-0.242.80498,508,467
2026-10-21———57.5858.35+0.78+5.423.880.50-1.04—497,876,480
2026-10-22———54.4955.17+0.68+4.993.880.50-0.612.76497,876,480
2026-10-23———53.9554.62+0.67+4.983.900.50-0.582.64498,327,884
2026-10-25———54.0454.67+0.63+4.663.900.50-0.262.64498,327,884
2026-10-26———54.0654.74+0.67+4.993.920.50-0.572.66498,327,884
2026-10-27———54.5455.15+0.61+4.443.930.50-0.012.66498,327,884

Gold

dateregistered (oz)eligible (oz)total (oz)front
GCZ26
next
GCG27
spreadbwd/cont %/yrSOFR %storage %lease %/yr10y real %ETF oz (GLD+IAU)
2026-10-05———4,162.604,198.10+35.50+5.123.880.50-0.742.9248,863,272
2026-10-06———4,191.704,226.80+35.10+5.023.890.50-0.632.9548,982,445
2026-10-07———4,135.204,168.10+32.90+4.773.900.50-0.372.9149,019,114
2026-10-08———4,168.404,207.00+38.60+5.563.880.50-1.182.9248,846,111
2026-10-09———4,216.304,251.50+35.20+5.013.870.50-0.642.8748,772,776
2026-10-11———4,217.804,252.90+35.10+4.993.870.50-0.622.8748,772,776
2026-10-12———4,186.204,224.00+37.80+5.423.870.50-1.052.8748,846,109
2026-10-13———4,182.004,217.30+35.30+5.063.870.50-0.692.9148,807,053
2026-10-14———4,157.404,197.20+39.80+5.743.890.50-1.352.8848,780,741
2026-10-15———4,178.704,217.30+38.60+5.543.880.50-1.162.8448,773,454
2026-10-16———4,181.104,216.10+35.00+5.023.890.50-0.632.7848,932,808
2026-10-18———4,197.404,231.30+33.90+4.853.890.50-0.462.7848,932,808
2026-10-19———4,151.204,195.30+44.10+6.373.880.50-1.992.7448,914,476
2026-10-20———4,138.304,171.00+32.70+4.743.870.50-0.372.8048,997,661
2026-10-21———4,135.304,169.60+34.30+4.983.880.50-0.60—48,915,170
2026-10-22———4,036.204,070.60+34.40+5.113.880.50-0.732.7648,518,001
2026-10-23———4,007.904,041.30+33.40+5.003.900.50-0.602.6448,377,469
2026-10-25———3,999.204,032.40+33.20+4.983.900.50-0.582.6448,377,469
2026-10-26———4,026.204,059.00+32.80+4.893.920.50-0.472.6648,343,396
2026-10-27———4,075.504,106.70+31.20+4.593.930.50-0.162.6648,324,604

Copper

dateregistered (lbs)eligible (lbs)total (lbs)front
HGZ26
next
HGH27
spreadbwd/cont %/yrSOFR %storage %lease %/yr10y real %ETF oz
2026-10-05———6.646.74+0.10+6.113.880.50-1.732.92—
2026-10-06———6.656.76+0.11+6.373.890.50-1.982.95—
2026-10-07———6.646.74+0.10+5.903.900.50-1.502.91—
2026-10-08———6.576.67+0.11+6.493.880.50-2.112.92—
2026-10-09———6.696.80+0.11+6.463.870.50-2.092.87—
2026-10-11———6.716.80+0.09+5.243.870.50-0.872.87—
2026-10-12———6.746.85+0.12+6.923.870.50-2.552.87—
2026-10-13———6.726.82+0.11+6.313.870.50-1.942.91—
2026-10-14———6.626.73+0.11+6.653.890.50-2.262.88—
2026-10-15———6.556.66+0.11+6.473.880.50-2.092.84—
2026-10-16———6.576.68+0.11+6.573.890.50-2.182.78—
2026-10-18———6.596.70+0.11+6.593.890.50-2.202.78—
2026-10-19———6.576.68+0.11+6.583.880.50-2.202.74—
2026-10-20———6.636.73+0.11+6.463.870.50-2.092.80—
2026-10-21———6.566.67+0.11+6.773.880.50-2.39——
2026-10-22———6.406.50+0.10+6.503.880.50-2.122.76—
2026-10-23———6.516.61+0.11+6.523.900.50-2.122.64—
2026-10-25———6.506.60+0.10+6.223.900.50-1.822.64—
2026-10-26———6.576.67+0.10+5.933.920.50-1.512.66—
2026-10-27———6.666.76+0.10+6.133.930.50-1.702.66—
fundmetalounces heldas of
GLDgold33,462,680 oz2026-10-26
IAUgold14,861,923 oz2026-10-27
SLVsilver498,327,884 oz2026-10-27

DeFi farming — Aave v4 loops & Merkl incentives

filters ▾
  • Aave v4 rates from the official AaveKit API (the same data pro.aave.com renders); Merkl LIVE campaigns from api.merkl.xyz — both keyless, refreshed hourly
  • a LOOP row = same asset supplies above its own borrow cost (supply APY + Merkl extra vs borrow APY − Merkl discount) — the recursive supply↔borrow carry; spread exists only while the campaign pays, so watch the end date
  • max lev = 1/(1−collateral factor), theoretical: borrow caps, utilization moves and permissioned assets (HYBOND needs OpenEden KYC) bind first; reward APRs pay in the campaign token (EDEN etc.) — price risk until claimed and sold
  • pinned terms (defifarm/watchlist.txt): HYBOND, EDEN, GHO — always shown, signal on first sight and on vanishing
  • campaign tables show Merkl's own apr/tvl figures, floors: apr ≥ 20%, tvl ≥ $1M (big-campaign signal gate)
  • read-only tracking — decisions and execution stay manual
asof 2026-10-28T11:01:46+00:00 · 119 reserves · 11 loops open · 1033 Merkl campaigns live

Same-asset loops (supply > borrow)

assetspokechainsupply%+merklborrow%−discspread ppmax levnet@max %borrowable $rewards end
USDCMainEthereum4.022.165.002.02+3.204.5x17.51,217,2822026-10-29
USDCForexEthereum4.022.165.002.02+3.2010.0x35.002026-10-29
USDTMainAvalanche1.894.133.240.00+2.794.5x15.91,966,1332026-10-29
USDTForexAvalanche1.894.133.240.00+2.7910.0x31.1870,7272026-10-29
USDCCoinbase StocksBase2.613.043.630.61+2.641.0x5.71,291,9852026-10-29
USDGMainEthereum1.783.833.180.00+2.431.0x5.620,433,4062026-10-29
frxUSDMainEthereum2.622.883.860.00+1.641.0x5.54,099,1622026-10-29
USDGMaple SyrupUSDGEthereum2.852.274.030.00+1.101.0x5.16,060,3982026-10-29
USDGPAXG GoldEthereum2.852.274.030.00+1.101.0x5.12,061,9592026-10-29
USDCMainAvalanche2.472.033.750.00+0.754.5x7.21,991,9902026-10-29
USDCForexAvalanche2.472.033.750.00+0.7510.0x11.2723,5072026-10-29

Pinned incentives (watchlist: HYBOND, EDEN, …)

statuscampaignprotocolactionapr%tvl $daily $
LIVESupply HYBOND on Clearstar OpenEden Hybond vault EulerLEND25.04,349,6222,979
LIVELend USDC on Aave V4AaveLEND6.023,275,5441,724
LIVELend GHO on AaveAaveLEND5.86,335,631352
LIVELend USDG on Aave V4AaveLEND5.578,665,8437,918
LIVELend frxUSD on Aave V4AaveLEND5.425,200,6191,889
LIVELend GHO on AaveAaveLEND3.221,260,8791,843
LIVESupply GHO to the Fluid fGHO vaultFluidLEND2.67,848,258552
LIVEBorrow USDC on Aave V4AaveBORROW2.040,759,5302,233
LIVESupply GHO to the Fluid fGHO vaultFluidLEND1.822,450,1071,103
LIVEBorrow GHO-USDC from Fluid GHO-USDC/GHO-USDC VaultFluidBORROW1.68,849,742392
LIVEBorrow GHO-USDC from Fluid GHO-sUSDe/GHO-USDC VaultFluidBORROW1.6834,70336
LIVELend GHO-USDC on Fluid GHO-USDC/GHO-USDC VaultFluidLEND1.59,779,449392
LIVEBorrow GHO-USDT0 from Fluid GHO-USDT0/GHO-USDT0 VaultFluidBORROW1.35,300,296196
LIVEBorrow GHO from Fluid sUSDai/GHO VaultFluidBORROW1.35,673,540196
LIVELend GHO-USDT0 on Fluid GHO-USDT0/GHO-USDT0 VaultFluidLEND1.25,789,004196

Top Merkl campaigns by APR (TVL ≥ $1M)

campaignprotocolactionchainapr%tvl $daily $
Deposit USDC or USDT in NLO AlphaNLOLEND56100.04,112,862456
Provide liquidity to UniswapV4 ETH-USDC Dynamic feeUniswapPOOL139.03,991,6884,265
Provide liquidity to Aero cirBTC-USDC 0.04%AeroPOOL504232.61,162,1281,038
Coinbase tokenized stocks on Aerodrome, via RevertAerodromePOOL845330.52,140,4741,903
Provide liquidity to Aero WETH-USDC 0.05%AeroPOOL504227.91,087,561830
Supply HYBOND on Clearstar OpenEden Hybond vault EulerLEND125.04,349,6222,979
Supply to KPK wARS Yield V2 vault on Morpho on EthereumMorphoLEND124.45,982,4623,995
Supply to 9Summits Piku Ecosystem USDC V2 vault on Morpho onMorphoLEND117.21,161,755548
Provide liquidity to Mento AUSD-USDmmentoPOOL14313.72,187,771819
Provide liquidity to Uniswap USDC-JSPX 0.05%UniswapPOOL845312.81,646,507579
Hold Morini FXArbUSDTRY (aFXArbUSDTRY)AccountableHOLD112.82,350,876821
Provide liquidity to UniswapV4 SPY-NVDA 0.025%UniswapPOOL466312.31,680,294568

All Aave v4 reserves (hourly tape's latest row)

assetspokechainsupply%+merklborrow%−discunderlying%supplied $borrowed $CF%
USDCMainArc2.793.660.00143,330,83467,449,48078
WETHMainEthereum1.592.13111,473,876527,47784
weETHEtherfiEthereum0.000.002.41102,038,806096
USDGMainEthereum1.783.833.180.00101,229,81854,559,0940
cirBTCMainArc0.000.2696,596,86492,49078
syrupUSDGMaple SyrupUSDGEthereum0.000.004.9865,881,290092
USDGMaple SyrupUSDGEthereum2.852.274.030.0054,148,50245,519,3430
USDCMainEthereum4.022.165.002.020.0053,810,58934,772,56778
wstETHMainEthereum0.000.002.3852,217,699082
syrupUSDCMaple SyrupUSDCArc0.000.005.0450,503,286092
WBTCMainEthereum0.000.330.0049,411,244386,11485
weETHMainEthereum0.000.002.4141,838,480081
WBTCBluechipEthereum0.000.000.0029,073,626084
frxUSDMainEthereum2.622.883.860.0027,790,8004,044,3300
USDeEthena EcosystemEthereum0.005.656.820.0027,239,4757,87793
wstETHBluechipEthereum0.000.002.3821,928,416086
USDtMainEthereum2.623.820.0019,998,11514,892,27278
cbBTCBluechipEthereum0.000.0017,000,239084
WAVAXMainAvalanche0.732.9616,912,80942,46673
BTC.bMainAvalanche0.000.0011,187,2222575
cbBTCMainEthereum0.030.5611,154,965478,44485
USDtForexEthereum2.623.820.0011,020,18116,87090
LINKMainEthereum0.000.008,712,582071
USDCMainAvalanche2.472.033.750.008,689,8957,005,25978
USDTMainAvalanche1.894.133.240.007,974,2313,025,91778
USDCBluechipEthereum3.764.830.007,743,1496,734,3540
XAUtGoldEthereum0.000.007,701,404075
USDCCoinbase StocksBase2.613.043.630.610.006,517,8375,226,5270
sAVAXAVAX CorrelatedAvalanche0.000.005.016,496,768095
WETHBluechipEthereum0.000.005,991,898086
PAXGPAXG GoldEthereum0.000.005,734,027075
USDCForexEthereum4.022.165.002.020.005,728,5537,998,03490
sUSDeEthena EcosystemEthereum0.000.004.284,358,286092
GOOGLcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.004,028,314076
USDtEthena EcosystemEthereum3.214.450.003,692,6253,151,3230
USDtBluechipEthereum2.543.760.003,387,8192,558,4570
AAVEMainEthereum0.000.003,316,537076
NVDAcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.003,170,429070
rsETHKelpEthereum0.000.002.663,106,77100
USDCEthena EcosystemEthereum3.504.650.002,994,4492,666,5680
USDCUSDG PendleEthereum2.984.070.002,840,2036,9320
USDeEthena EcosystemAvalanche0.000.000.002,582,523093
WETH.eMainAvalanche0.000.121,913,64779,84483
METAcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.001,903,169065
EURCMainArc0.411.680.001,533,556434,9220
EURCForexEthereum3.414.890.001,374,6313,40390
USDCForexAvalanche2.472.033.750.001,076,718226,20290
TSLAcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.001,068,980065
USDTForexAvalanche1.894.133.240.00828,32877,76290
AAPLcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.00793,300078
LBTCLombardEthereum0.000.000.38705,743086
GHOMainEthereum4.855.960.00657,395579,2330
GHOBluechipEthereum3.294.080.00607,505547,1790
AMZNcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.00482,631073
WETHMainArc0.000.07420,69012,23383
EURCMainEthereum3.414.890.00333,8201,082,3130
MSFTcCoinbase StocksBase0.003.040.00329,673079
USDGPAXG GoldEthereum2.852.274.030.00154,3702,937,5410
USDeEthena CorrelatedEthereum0.005.656.820.00146,4162193
wstETHLidoEthereum0.000.002.3893,348096
EURCForexArc0.411.680.0059,69517890
GHOEthena EcosystemEthereum3.604.530.0050,83145,0590
USDCForexArc2.793.660.0024,75144,07490
PT USDGUSDG PendleEthereum0.000.000.009,850094
EURCForexAvalanche0.531.926,036090
USDtUSDG PendleEthereum3.104.140.001,9751,6510
WAVAXAVAX CorrelatedAvalanche0.732.961.001,4615,238,3790
RLUSDBluechipEthereum0.020.630.0028690
RLUSDMainEthereum1.172.730.00122650
PT USDeEthena CorrelatedEthereum0.000.000.0023096
PYUSDBluechipEthereum0.000.500.002000
kBTCBluechipEthereum0.000.0016086
OUSDBluechipEthereum0.000.500.00900
sUSDeEthena CorrelatedEthereum0.000.004.286092
USDCMaple SyrupUSDGEthereum2.984.070.0032,312,8450
EURCGoldEthereum3.414.890.00017,1670
EURCBluechipEthereum3.414.890.000231,2460
EURCMainAvalanche0.531.9201,8770
GHOGoldEthereum4.855.960.00013,0530
GHOForexEthereum4.855.960.0004,7350

Dossier

filters ▾
  • a PERSON assembled across sources (dossier/people.json) — nothing here is a new collector: filings come from the familyoffice EDGAR trail, fund positions from the 13F ledger, news from newswatch's dossier mode, attention from wikiviews
  • dossier news is UNFILTERED on purpose (statements, profiles, appearances — the person is the point) and lives only here: never in Latest signals, never a Telegram ping
  • 13F positions are AS FILED, quarterly, ~45 days delayed — a fund's public book, not their private investments
  • blocks that need a one-time pin (Karp's CIK, the Wikipedia articles) say so until it happens

Peter Thiel

PLTR co-founder/chairman · Thiel Macro 13F + his personal 4/144/13G trail via familyoffice (CIKs 1562087 + 1211060, live)
Wikipedia attention: not flowing yet — topic pending resolve→pin on the box, or under half a 30d window of history
observedfiling trail (EDGAR, via familyoffice)
no filings in the ledger yet
13F positions: no report for this fund in the ledger yet
seennews & filing mentions (unfiltered)
2026-10-28Livemint · 5 start-up lessons from Zero to One by Peter Thiel and Blake Masters: Follow the Money, Mechanics of Mafia and more
2026-10-27Yahoo Finance · Peter Thiel's Apple verdict raises a $5 trillion question
2026-10-27named in a 497AD filed by RoboStrategy, Inc. (BOT) (CIK 0002081119) on 2026-10-27
2026-10-27named in a 497AD filed by RoboStrategy, Inc. (BOT) (CIK 0002081119) on 2026-10-27
2026-10-27named in a 497AD filed by RoboStrategy, Inc. (BOT) (CIK 0002081119) on 2026-10-27
2026-10-27Independent Australia · 'End Times Fascism' and the billionaires gambling with humanity's future
2026-10-27TechStory · PayPal Cofounder Peter Thiel Says Apple Has Done ‘Nothing New’ Since Steve Jobs’ Death
2026-10-27NewsBytes · Peter Thiel says Apple stopped innovating after Steve Jobs's death

Alex Karp

PLTR CEO · no fund — the filings trail is his insider forms, live once his CIK is resolved and pinned
Wikipedia attention: not flowing yet — topic pending resolve→pin on the box, or under half a 30d window of history
observedfiling trail (EDGAR, via familyoffice)
no filings in the ledger yet
seennews & filing mentions (unfiltered)
2026-10-28BusinessDesk · AI’s wealth tax – and how we dodge it
2026-10-27The Globe and Mail · Will Palantir Technologies Stock Hit $300 Before the End of 2026?
2026-10-27Responsible Statecraft · The anti-China coalition is breaking apart at the seams
2026-10-26Medium · Palantir CEO Alex Karp Says Europe Has Quit the AI Race! Here’s My Opinion Based on Research
2026-10-26X · 🇮🇱🇺🇸🇨🇳 Netanyahu BRAGS that the Palantir CEO called Israel the third AI power after the U.S. and China He quoted Alex Karp saying Europe is worth nothing, then added that the man still put Israel on the list. A ranking is one thing; lasting strength is harder
2026-10-26FashionNetwork - The World's Fashion Business News · Palantir’s fast-selling $170 windbreaker shows its Korea appeal
2026-10-25Hindustan Times · Alex Karp says AI could give neurodivergent workers an edge in the workplace as companies rethink hiring practices | Hindustan Times
2026-10-25The Economic Times · Alex Karp’s AI-era career advice: Why the Palantir CEO thinks neurodivergent workers have an advantage
768
signals · 24h
38/48
sources healthy
12
routed alerts pending
85561
signals · all time